Newspapers Dead Within Five Years, USC Predicts

By Dennis Romero Wed., Dec. 14 2011 at 12:46 PM

Cristian Hernandez

As if the ink-stained wretches of the newspaper world need anymore bad news, the USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future says the print product some of you like to pick up of your driveway every morning will go the way of the dinosaur within five years.

A Digital Future report summarizing 10 years of the Center's studies asks, "Is America at a Digital Turning Point?" and the answer seems to be yes.

On the question of newspapers, Center director Jeffrey I. Cole says:

... We believe that the only print newspapers that will survive will be at the extremes of the medium - the largest and the smallest. ... The impending death of the American print newspaper continues to raise many questions. Will media organizations survive and thrive when they move exclusively to online availability? How will the changing delivery of content affect the quality and depth of journalism?

USC concludes: "Most print newspapers will be gone in five years."

Good news for the Los Angeles Times, though (maybe):

The Center says "only four major daily newspapers" would survive, naming The New York Times, USA Today, The Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.

We think that the L.A. Times should be considered among those papers that will survive. There's no reason why the paper shouldn't thrive as well as, say, the Washington Post, and for decades it was mentioned as being among the "big four" papers presenting the best journalism in the land (next to The New York Times, the Post and the Journal).

Good news for LA Weekly too. Possibly. USC:

At the other extreme, local weekly newspapers may still survive.

Online, however, seems to be the place to be. The Times claims a "reach" of 17 million, which far outstrips its daily print circulation of ~~723,181~~ 572,998. Unfortunately the paper is rumored to be pondering a pay-wall scheme that could charge readers for online content and shed some of that "reach."

Bad move if you ask us.

On the other hand, the idea of getting yesterday's news via a printout in the morning has felt antiquated to us for 10 years now.

The Sunday paper -- now that's something worth holding on to.

[@dennisjromero / djromero@laweekly.com / @LAWeeklyNews]

Tags:

digital journalism, LA Weekly, Los Angeles Times, media, newspapers, online, USC

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Chipshofner

As the owner of a youn weekly paper, we have seen a jump in advertising in the wake of faltering regional papers. The death of anything come when it is irrelevant ...and that is often a self -inflcted wound. Major dailies became fat and lazy thus assuring their death.They ARE done. We see a lively and engaged audience at both our print and online products ..the need for all outlets is to serve their communities with passion and creativity ...the money and lifeblood will follow.

neulabs

5 or 10 years - I will still read newspaper

Gborrell

Funny....same very logical prediction was made exactly 50 years ago about radio (December 1961). The last two nighttime dramatic shows -- "Suspense" and "Sam Spade" died nine months later (in September 1962), ending the Golden Age of Radio. Radio reinvented itself in the face of the big disruptor of the day -- TV. I'm pretty sure newspapers are going to wind up just like radio -- smaller, but reinvented to serve a purely local niche that the Internet can't serve very well. Many mid-size and some metro newspapers will probably disapper in the next few years. I agree with that assessment.

johnatthebar

Isn't it more likely that dailies will drop editions and go weekly or semiweekly, which will lead them to bigfoot on the analytical-news-plus-entertainment editorial model established by the LA Weekly and its peers 30 years ago?

edit: um, 40 years ago?

Recovering Newspaper Alum

Wow. It is amazing that even with this kind of a study, you still manage to stick your head in the sand "We think that the L.A. Times should be considered among those papers that will survive". I worked for 18 years in the business side of one of the top ten papers in the country. The reason the LA Times is in a worse position than the Post has nothing to do with journalism (though I think that both are doomed). The Post can at least pretend to be a national newspaper like the other three since it is based in the Capital. The point is that regional advertising is drying up and papers can survive on national or very local advertising, nothing in between.All print is in its endgame, the major metros are just the closest to checkmate. If it's any consolation, the other newspapers will be five years behind you.

Cynthia Goebel

This type of pronouncement assumes all news readers have access to the internet. I don't believe this is true currently or will be true in 5 years, therefore I do not accept theveracity of this " finding"

Chris

No, it doesn't. It presumes that providing a product with a ever-growing cost and an ever-diminishing return to a shrinking audience will cross the unprofitability threshold, forcing news outlets to stop paper production. If people wish to continue seeing a paper, and refuse to connect to the Internet (or have the Internet but prefer paper), they will need to demonstrate that they can still be a profitable audience. Because certain types of large or hyperlocal audiences can demonstrate this trait, this is why they concluded that the largest and smallest newspapers will survive.

Guest

The Times daily circulation is 572,998. You were using the 2009 figures. And that much depressed figure still brings in 75 percent or more of the revenue of the 17 million reach, which counts pageviews and uniques on their website. The collision this week at the Times was about two visions - a free digital site and a paywall. The first was given a chance and with the large staff they have, has succeeded as an editorial product (for the most part) but is untenable as a business model. You can't have scores of bloggers earning middle (or even low) five figures turning out slideshows with 2 cent CPMs for content that advertisers see as worth only of the lowest remaining inventory ad rates. The paywall likely won't work either. Wish I knew what would.

Dennis Romero

My bad (re: circulation). Will fix. Thanks.